Mortgage market in Quebec in 2025: current rates and comparison of offers from the major Canadian banks

The mortgage market in Quebec in 2025 remains complex for potential buyers and homeowners. Here is a clear and professional overview of current trends and useful tips to navigate this financial landscape.

1) Current state of the mortgage market in Quebec

The market remains under pressure, notably due to the massive renewals of mortgages obtained at historically low rates. The Bank of Canada estimates that nearly 60% of borrowers will renew their loan in 2025 or 2026, with an average increase in payments of 10% to 15–20% for five-year fixed-rate loans. These increases reflect the move from floor rates to higher levels.

2) Bank of Canada policy rate and its impact

The Bank of Canada has lowered its policy rate several times in 2025, moving from 3.00% in January to 2.25% in October, and then maintaining it at that level for the rest of the year. In January 2026, this rate was still 2.25%.

This policy rate directly influences the prime rate, which is currently around 4.45%. Variable-rate borrowers thus enjoy some stability or a slight relief, while fixed rates are more dependent on bond yields.

3) Comparison of mortgage rates offered by the major banks

Canadian banks maintain relatively stable forecasts for 2026, with the majority expecting a stable policy rate at 2.25%. Only Scotiabank and National Bank anticipate a possible rise to 2.75% by year-end.

Here is a summary of the expectations of the major institutions (data from January 2026):

• BMO, CIBC, RBC, TD: policy rate stable at 2.25%
• Scotiabank and National Bank: possible rise to 2.75%

Note that these policy rates reflect expectations, not the exact mortgage rates offered to clients. To obtain current fixed or variable rates from banks (RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC, Desjardins, National Bank), it is advisable to consult their websites directly or contact a broker, as these rates change frequently.

4) Practical advice for Quebec borrowers

• Analyze your mortgage type: if you hold a 5-year fixed rate, prepare for higher payments. Consider a variable rate if you seek more flexibility.
• Actively compare offers: rates can vary between institutions. A mortgage broker can help you compare fixed and variable rates, including Desjardins and National Bank in Quebec.
• Anticipate renewal: start the process 4 to 6 months in advance to avoid last-minute increases.
• Prioritize financial stability: a slightly higher but stable rate may be preferable to an uncertain variable rate.
• Consult a financial advisor: an expert can guide you according to your profile, your down payment, and your long-term goals.

Sources

• Bank of Canada – Personal analytical note on mortgage renewals
• RBC – History of Bank of Canada rate announcements
• Nesto – Prime rate and outlook
• Nesto – Mortgage rate forecasts 2026